Tesla Motors TSLA Earnings Plays

TESLA MOTORS TSLA EARNINGS PLAYS

Historical Move – $15 – $30
Maximum Move – $40
Avg Move – $20

2/22/16 – Tesla reports on 2/22 in the aftermarket. The current close price is 277.39. The market is pricing in a 20 dollar move! Insane since this stock has not done that in a very long time. The chart is very bullish and this could potentially continue its run above 300. The little fundamentals I know, the deliveries have increased and they have recently made a move to do solar panels for roofs. The big play is batteries. All that said, the chart is bullish and I am looking for this to make a new 52 week high. I am looking at the price points of 300 and 260.
Debit Iron Condor Play – Mar 3 272.5/270 bear put spread for a 1.08 debit and Mar 3 287.5/290 bull call spread for a 1.00 debit. This requires the stock to move above 290 or go below 270 to make a fixed return of about 20%. This is very simple as the max is fixed so once it get there, its complete. The max loss can occur only if the stock stays in between 272.5 – 287.5. The current cost is about $208 total. This is my favorite play. It requires no margin.
– Double Butterfly Play – Mar 3 280/
300/320 call spread for a 4.00 debit and Mar 3 280/260/240 put spread for a 4.95 debit. This requires the stock to move and stay in between roughly 250-270 or 290-310 to make a profit. The max loss can occur if the stock does not move. Its a dead zone in between 270-290. The current cost comes to a total of about $895. The return is over 100% if it stays in either of those ranges. I love this play as it is very simple, its effective and high probability. It requires no margin.
– Double Broken Wing Butterfly Play – Mar 3 290/300/305 call spread for a 1.56 debit and Mar 3 275/265/260 put spread for a 2.58 debit. This play requires the stock to move above about 294 or below about 271 to begin to make a return. It gains a max return over 100% at either 300 or 265. If it moves below 260 or above 305, the return is fixed at about 20%. This play is simple and it requires no margin.

– Double Calendar Play –  Mar 10/Mar 3 260 put spread for a 1.05 debit and Mar 10/Mar 3 310 call spread for a .66 debit. This requires the stock to trade near +/- about $10 around either 310 or 260. The max loss can occur if the stock does not move. This play may actually benefit at first from a lack of a move at first since the premium from the front month is higher than the back month. The current cost is about $171 total. It is much cheaper and has a similar effectiveness as the butterfly play. This is a 100% and up return play that plays a nice range. It requires no margin.
– Diagonal Play – Mar 10 250/Mar 3 260 put spread for a 1.18 credit. This is about a 12% return and has a probability of 87% of expiring in the money. This requires the stock to just stay above the break even of 253. It is skewed in favor of a bullish move. It has some downside protection for a move to 260 where the max return could be +100%. If the stock remains still or moves higher, this is a perfect strategy. It requires margin of 1000$.


10/21/16 – Tesla reports on 10/26 in the aftermarket. The current close price is 199.10. The market is pricing in about a $13 move. The chart is at a crossroads currently as all of the moving averages are grouping together. This is usually the signal for a trend change and if so, this is looking to move lower. To add to that, the MACD has also crossed below the zero line. The negative price divergence is also in favor of a move lower. For now, I am pricing in a $6-8 move from earnings. I am working with the price points of 185 and 210.
Debit Iron Condor Play – Nov1 195/192.5 bear put spread for a .83 debit and Nov1 207.5/210 bull call spread for a .75 debit. This requires the stock to move above 210 or go below 192.5 to make a fixed return of about 58%. This is very simple as the max is fixed so once it get there, its complete. The max loss can occur only if the stock stays in between 195 – 207.5. The current cost is about $160 total. This is my favorite since it prices in its minimal move. It requires no margin.

– Double Butterfly Play – Nov1 200/185/170 put spread for a 3.38 debit and Nov1 200/215/230 call spread for a 3.29 debit. This requires the stock to move and stay in between roughly 177-193 or 207-223 to make a profit. The max loss can occur if the stock does not move. Its a dead zone in between 193-207. The current cost comes to a total of about $670. The return is over 100% if it stays in either of those ranges. I love this play as it is very simple, its effective and high probability. It requires no margin.
– Double Calendar Play –  Nov2/Nov1 185 put spread for a .64 debit and Nov2/Nov1 210 call spread for a .75 debit. This requires the stock to trade near +/- about $4 around either 185 or 210. The max loss can occur if the stock does not move. This play may actually benefit at first from a lack of a move at first since the premium from the front month is higher than the back month. The current cost is about $140 total. It is much cheaper and has a similar effectiveness as the butterfly play. This is a 100% and up return play that plays a nice range. It requires no margin.
– Double Butterfly (Iron Condor) Play – Nov1 225/
210/195 put spread for a 4.25 debit and Nov1 180/195/210 call spread for a 4.31 debit. This play is special as it combines both the butterfly and iron condor properties. It maintains the range but adds in a fixed return vs a maximum return that the butterfly normally gives. This requires the stock to stay in between roughly 188-216 to make a profit. The max loss can occur if the stock moves beyond the range in either way. The current cost comes to a total of about $860. The return is about 75% if it stays in range. This stock can sometimes not make a move and this play is designed to benefit the most from a lack of movement. It also gives some room for error if it does move by covering the recent minimum move the stock has made from earnings. It requires no margin.


7/27/15 – Tesla reports on 8/3 in the aftermarket. The current close price is 229.51. The market is pricing in about a $20 move. That is in line with the average move. The past has shown this stock to be very indecisive when it comes to earnings. The chart is aligning for a move lower and earnings may help it do so. It has pushed higher before it reports. For now, I am pricing in a $10 move from earnings. It has some higher expectations so earnings may help lead a path. I am working with the price points of 240 and 220.
– Double Butterfly Play – Aug2 230/210/190 put spread and Aug2 220/240/260 call spread. This requires the stock to move and stay in between roughly 230-190 or 220-260 to make a profit. The max loss can occur if the stock does not move. Its a dead zone in between 220-230. The current cost comes to a total of about $1000. The return is about 90% if it stays in either of those ranges. I love this play as it is very simple, its effective and high probability. It requires no margin.
– Double Calendar Play –  Aug 16/Aug2 210 put spread and Aug 16/Aug2 240 call spread. This requires the stock to trade near +/- about $8 around either 210 or 240. The max loss can occur if the stock does not move. This play may actually benefit at first from a lack of a move at first since the premium from the front month is higher than the back month. The current cost is about $200 total. It is much cheaper and has a similar effectiveness as the butterfly play. This is a 100% and up return play that plays a nice range. It requires no margin.
Debit Iron Condor Play – Aug2 222.5/220 bear put spread and Aug2 237.5/240 bull call spread. This requires the stock to move above 240 or go below 220 to make a fixed return of about 30%. This is very simple as the max is fixed so once it get there, its complete. The max loss can occur only if the stock stays in between 222.5 – 237.5. The current cost is about $200 total. The other two plays will make more money but this one is the simplest one of the group. It requires no margin.


2/8/16 – Tesla reports on 2/10 in the aftermarket. The current close price is 162.60. It could hang out in the 160’s before it reports. With the latest move like linked in happening, I am a little cautions on placing a play when the stock can exceed its normal move. This is in a similar situation so I have to take caution. The market is pricing in a 20 dollar move and that’s about right. That would land it around the 140’s. Lets just say if they burn through cash faster than expected or something else is worse? That move can easily end up at 120. I am just preparing for madness, lol

– Iron Condor Play – Feb 16 152.5/150 bear put spread for about .80 debit and Feb 16 167.5/170 bull call spread for about 1.05 debit. The plays combine for about $180 and can get a generous 35% return if the stock moves beyond either 150 or 170. Its simple and the best play to cover against any wild move and very cheap considering the risk. The max loss can occur if the stock does not move at all and stays between 167.5-152.5 by expiration. This play requires no margin.
– Double Calendar Play – Feb 16/Feb4 120 put spread for about a .70 debit and a Feb 16/Feb4 180 call spread for about a .93 debit.
– Backratio Play – Feb2 or Feb 16 170/155 put spread for about a .63 debit for the Feb2 strike week or a 1.75 debit for the Feb 16 strike week.
– Butterfly Play – Feb2 160/130/100 put spread for about a 5.24 debit.

10/30/15 – Tesla reports on 11/3 in the aftermarket. The current close price is 211.63. With about two trading days left, it may likely stick around this base or move to 220 so. The market is pricing in about a $20 move. That’s about what I see as well. This stock continues to stick around and has recently been very oversold and earnings may give this a chance to live out all those analyst dreams of the stock going to 300 one day. For now, I am pricing in a modest $10 move from earnings. It hasn’t been a big mover lately. This should be fairly easy.
– Double Butterfly Play – Nov2 210/195/170 put spread and a Nov2 220/235/250 call spread. This requires the stock to move and stay in between 210-170 or 220-250 to make a profit. The max loss can occur if the stock does not move. Its a dead zone in between 210-220. The current cost comes to a total of about $400. The return is easily over 100% if it stays in those ranges. I love this play as it is very simple, its cheap and high probability. It requires no margin.
– Double Calendar Play – Nov2/Nov1 195 put spread and Nov2/Nov1 240 call spread. This requires the stock to trade near +/- about $8 around either 195 or 240. The max loss can occur if the stock does not move. This play may actually benefit at first from a lack of a move at first since the premium from the front month is higher than the back month. The current cost is about $120 total. It is much cheaper and still as profitable as the butterfly play. This is another 100% and up return play that plays a nice range. It requires no margin.
Debit Iron Condor Play – Nov2 207.5/205 bear put spread and a Nov2 215/217.5 bull call spread. This requires the stock to move above 217.5 or go below 205 to make a fixed return of about 20%. This is very simple as the max is fixed so once it get there, its complete. The max loss can occur only if the stock stays in between 207.5 – 215. The current cost is about $200 total. The other two plays will make more money but this one is the simplest one of the group. It requires no margin.


The market is pricing in about a 18 dollar move. Tesla has made a very nice move to achieve new recent highs for the year. I really don’t get this company as a whole but who cares, lol. The chart has been solid this year. Earnings could change the landscape though. I am doing this differently this time by going a week ahead of earnings. The move it makes from earnings lately has been very unpredictable. It has been not moving much in the premarket only to do very wild moves during normal trading hours. The move after earnings has been more dependable lately of about 15-20 dollars. This is based upon the stock being at about 265 when earnings come out. That lands the price at about 280-285 on the high side and 250-245 on the low side.

Double Calendar play: Aug 15/Aug4 240 put calendar and Aug 15/Aug4 290 call calendar. This takes into account any movement after the report. It makes the maximum if it is near the strike by 8/14.
Credit Iron Condor play: Aug 15 220/215 bull put spread and Aug 15 300/305 bear call spread. This play requires the stock to stay in between 220 and 300 by 8/14. This is very simple and gives plenty of time to make an adjustment if needed. The stock can move an addtional 20 pts after earnings and this take that into consideration. This play requires margin of 500 per contract.
Debit Iron Condor play: Aug 15 260/257.5 bear put spread and Aug 15 267.5/270 bull call spread. This play is simple as it requires the stock to move either below 257.5 or 270 to make a maximum return. It is also very simple and it does not require any margin.


2/11/15 – Tesla reports in the aftermarket today. The last close price is 216.29. Tesla has moved up from a falling wedge as of lately and made it almost to its 200 day moving average. The larger scale chart also shows that the upper 220’s was strong resistance. The chart is showing a beat could be in play. Also, Mr. Musk has been doing an awful lot to downplay China sales prior to the earnings release. The last two earnings didn’t really budge the stock in the aftermarket and it made its moves during live hours. History shows this as an average move of 10-12 points with a max registering at about 20. A 180/182.5 Feb 15/Feb2 diagonal put spread is the target for the downside. A 230/227.5 diagonal call spread is the target for the upside. Buying both will cover on either end and the risk is very slim. The key to this strategy working is for Tesla to not move too far from the strike being sold. This means it must not move to far down from 182.5 or too far up past 227.5. Whichever side wins the battle, you sell off the losing side and allow your winning side to win.

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